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Published!

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My " Interest Rate Modelling in the Multi-curve Framework " book has finally been published! It took quite some time between finishing the writing in the first half of 2025 and the actual physical availability. Hopefully some of you will find some interest in the result. Training based on the book’s content will be proposed. It can be as in-house or public workshops. One of the public workshops is planned for 17 and 18 December. Don’t hesitate to contact me if you are interested. ISBN-13: 978-3-032-02684-2 Related posts: Multi-curve framework book: new edition in progress Multi-curve book's cover Multi-curve book's cover (2) Multi-curve book: About the Book Multi-curve framework book new edition: endorsement by Marco Bianchetti Multi-curve framework book new edition: endorsement by Damiano Brigo Book publication soon!

Book publication soon!

After more than 6 months of delay, it appears that the editor finally managed to provide clean proofs for the second edition of my book " Interest Rate Modelling in the Multi-curve Framework: Foundations, Evolution, Transition, and Implementation ". The manuscript was finalised in May ... 2025, we can now hope for a publication in July 2026. As soon as physical copies are available I will post a message on this blog! Thanks for you patience.

Only 10 years to cessation - WIBOR world record!

On Monday and Tuesday I was in Warsaw presenting a workshop related to the content of my soon to be published book " Interest Rate Modelling in the Multi-curve Framework: Foundations, Evolution, Transition, and Implementation ". In the book's subtitle, there is "Transition". I knew that the Polish market was in a transition phase between WIBOR and POLSTER. Nevertheless, I was surprised that the WIBOR benchmark administrator announced while I was there that WIBOR will cesse to be published on 1 January 2037 (to my knowledge, no casual relation between my presence and the announcement). That is a 10-year period between announcement and actual cessation! That is a world record!!! Congratulation to Poland for that world record. Now you have to live with it! In particular have a look at Section 6.6.4 of my book and my blog posts LIBOR Fallback Transformers - Risk transition , LIBOR fallback transformers - forward discontinuation and LIBOR discontinuation and curve ...

Financial fiction - How to make money: Belgian capital gain tax version

Everybody is familiar with the option exercise mechanism ... expect fictional Belgian lawmakers. A (real) judge once said: "it is not illegal to be smarter than tax collectors". To be precise, what he actually said, was "It is not illegal to be smarter than your counterparties [...]" , but in tax matters, the tax collector is your counterparty. What we explore in this financial fiction blog, is to assess if it is possible to make money out of the ignorance of fictional lawmakers. This is a work of fiction. Characters, places, and events are products of the author’s imagination. Any likeness to real people, living or dead, or actual events is by chance almost everywhere.(1) This blog does not contain any financial or tax advice. The taxation of options is done in the following way: if an option is bought then sold or the opposite, the profit or loss on the buy/sell is taxable. If an option is exercised, the option price is ignored for tax purposes, but the transa...

Hallucination?

I’m not a fan of the so-called Artificial Intelligence, which is to my opinion at this stage more like “automated plagiarism” than actual intelligence. Nevertheless I use it from time to time, with limited success. I could not resist to ask the following question: What is the best book to learn about the multi-curve framework? The answer is: The best book to learn about the multi-curve framework is generally considered to be Interest Rate Modelling in the Multi-Curve Framework: Foundations, Evolution and Implementation by Marc Henrard. This book is written by one of the "founding fathers" of the framework and is specifically tailored for both academics and practitioners. Why this book is recommended Comprehensive Coverage: The book provides a detailed analysis of the framework's foundations, its evolution post-financial crisis (2007-2013), and implementation. Practical Focus: It describes the issues and provides examples of coherent, production-grade li...

Dérivée troisième

L'inflation belge accélère à 2,4% en novembre. Titre d'un article de l'Echo aujourd'hui . Dérivée troisième, Ah ! Que J’aime entendre ta voix ! L’inflation est le changement de prix, une accélération est la dérivée seconde de la position d’inflation. Nous sommes donc en présence d’un article sur la dérivée troisième des prix comme fonction du temps. Malheureusement la première ligne de l’article déçoit immédiatement les fans de la dérivée troisième, car elle indique: L'inflation [...] est repartie à la hausse. Seulement une dérivée seconde! Ce que l’article n’indique pas est que l’inflation généralement commentée est l’inflation annuelle. Quand on compare l'inflation d'"octobre 2025" à l'inflation de "novembre 2025", il y a 11 mois en commun. Par conséquent, on compare novembre 2025 — qui entre dans la période annuelle — à novembre 2024 — qui en sort. Pour comprendre ce qui ce passe, il faut aller à la source (Stabel) mais mal...

V@R and minimal tick value

A Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology is a technique to estimate the maximum loss at a given time horizon that is exceeded only at a certain probability level. Several methodologies are used to obtain those estimations and a lot of them are based on “scenarios”. They can be historical data inspired, stress tests or Monte Carlo. Those methodologies are often used to compute Initial Margin (IM) related to exchange traded portfolios. The instruments in exchange trades setup have standardized terms and conditions, including a “tick value” or “minimal increment” which indicates the precision of the price quotation mechanism. This is often one cent on prices and one basis point for interest rates. I have been involved in many VaR and IM methodologies over the past years: development, replication, validation. One question that I have been asked several times with different flavours is: How should the methodology account for tick value in the scenarios? Should the price generated by the scena...

Multi-curve framework book new edition: endorsement by Andrea Pallavicini

Different experts in interest rate modelling were kind enough to write an endorsement for the multi-curve new edition book. Part of them are displayed on the back-cover (there is not enough space to display the full texts there). I will publish on this blog the longer versions of them between now the actual book's publication in November December. A decade ago, this book did not just introduce the essential multi-curve framework; it also laid its foundations with rigorous clarity, recognizing the pitfalls of simply adapting old "one-curve" approaches. Now, in its vital second edition, the author delivers an even more indispensable resource, profoundly addressing the market shifts that have redefined interest rate modeling. This edition is a direct response to critical changes like BCBS-IOSCO margin requirements and, most importantly, the end of LIBOR and the benchmark transition. The book's strength lies in its axiomatic approach, providing solid proofs and clea...

Negative Swap / Government Spread: A SOFR definition impact

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Negative government bond spreads have been a puzzle for some people for a long time. The question has been stated in some places as `` How can the banks borrow at a lower rate than the government? ''. I have already partially given my point of view about that issue in a blog 10 years ago . That was in the context of the LIBOR swaps, but it is still true in the SOFR case. Now I want to add some technical details for the SOFR OIS case. To some extent, I claim that the swap spread have to be negative! SOFR-OIS swap / government spreads In this analysis, I'm using the results of the multi-curve framework in a loose sense. I'm using expected values, without clarifying in which measure they are and extended the results to government bonds. The goal is to indicate that the ISDA definition of SOFR (introduced below) used in swaps may have an hidden impact on swap spreads. For this simplified approach, I'm presenting the impact only for zero-coupon bonds. The notation ...

Multi-curve framework book new edition: endorsement by Damiano Brigo

Different experts in interest rate modelling were kind enough to write an endorsement for the multi-curve new edition book. Part of them are displayed on the back-cover (there is not enough space to display the full texts there). I will publish on this blog the longer versions of them between now the actual book's publication in November. Marc Henrard has written a much needed second edition of his successful and popular multi-curve book. After a number of events, including the so-called LIBOR end hit the markets, and new types of contracts with new types of rates have appeared, together with some instances of survival of the old rates, a book like this has been much needed for the quant community and beyond. I will personally recommend this book to my MSc students who need to navigate the nuance of current interest rate markets. Marc has done a massive work of absorbing the changes introduced both by public institutions and the quant community in a coherent narrative. The boo...

Taxe sur les plus-values en Belgique

La Belgique se prépare à mettre en place une taxe sur les plus-values (réalisées). Les textes exact n’ont pas encore été votés, il n’y a pas encore de précision sur le mécanisme exact. J’ai essayé de comprendre le mécanisme général, mais j’ai encore pas mal de questions. J’en indique quelques-unes ci-dessous. J’espère que les réponses seront dans le texte final. A défaut, le parlement peut toujours me contacter pour des conseils. Pour les actions en portefeuille à la date de l’entrée en vigueur de la loi (2026-01-01), les plus-values seront calculées sur base de la valeur à cette date. Comment est calculée la valeur d’une action non cotée? Cela doit être disponible pour une action à propos de laquelle le détenteur n’a aucune information (outre le fait d’en être le détenteur d’actions). Les employés de start-up reçoivent souvent des actions d’une société mère qui a une résidence fiscale non-belge. Quelle est la notion de plus-value après l'exercice d’une option? Si j’exerce un cal...

Multi-curve framework book new edition: endorsement by Marco Bianchetti

Different experts in interest rate modelling were kind enough to write an endorsement for the multi-curve new edition book. Part of them are displayed on the back-cover (there is not enough space to display the full texts there). I will publish on this blog the longer versions of them between now the actual book's publication in November. This is the book I would have loved to write, but now that I have it in front of me, I realize I would not have matched Marc Henrard's excellence. All the essential aspects needed to understand modern interest rate modelling theory, as well as to apply it in everyday financial practice, are clearly explained with a rigorous yet practical approach. Definitely, it is one of the books that every practitioner of quantitative finance should read and keep at hand. Marco Bianchetti Head of Market and Counterparty Risk IMA Methodologies, Market and Financial Risk Management, Intesa Sanpaolo, Milan Adjunct Professor of Advanced Interest Rate...

Multi-curve book: About the Book

The multi-curve book continue its march to production. The final proofs are expected for the end of October for a book publication in November. Find below the book's synopsis. About the Book A new standard in interest rate modelling, called the multi-curve framework, emerged after the financial crisis. The framework covers two important market features: the collateralization of derivative trades and the spread between different rate benchmarks. This book starts from the collateral mechanisms and builds the full framework from the foundations through all the technical and financial details. It kicks off with the collateral discounting in all its variants: domestic cash, foreign cash, or other assets and then introduces the different benchmarks and their associated spreads. Following the discontinuation of certain benchmarks, part of the book is dedicated to the transition and the emergence of the overnight benchmark dominance in certain currencies. Based on the theoretical fram...

Campbell, Goodhart et PEB

Vers un certificat PEB obligatoire pour tous les logements en Belgique ? ” Tel est la question posée dans un article de la RTBF  sur base d’un avis du “ Conseil central de l’économie ” (CCE). Le texte du CCE est disponible à https://www.ccecrb.fgov.be/p/fr/1296/renovation-de-logements-un-besoin-urgent-de-sensibilisation-d-informations-claires-et-de-regles-uniformes/10 Ceux qui me connaissent savent que j’ai déjà une réaction quand je lis “conseil central”. Et quand je lis la proposition d’un certificat PEB obligatoire, je ne peux m’empêcher de penser “ loi de Campbell ” Plus un indicateur social quantitatif est utilisé comme aide à la décision en matière de politique sociale, plus cet indicateur est susceptible d'être manipulé et d'agir comme facteur de distorsion, faussant ainsi les processus sociaux qu'il est censé surveiller. et “ loi de Goodhart ” Toute régularité statistique observée tend à perdre toute crédibilité dès qu'elle est mise sous tension à des fins d...

Multi-curve book's cover (2)

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The book's new edition continue its progres. After the picture used for the book's cover background, I can propose a draft view of the cover page. More details will be posted soon. Related posts: Multi-curve framework book: new edition in progress Multi-curve book's cover

Multi-curve book's cover

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The book's new edition is progressing. In can propose a preview of the book's cover background. It is based on the same picture as the one that has been in the this blog's header for some time.  The picture was taken in 2019 in New-York at the Oculus. New York is certainly an important financial center, it headquarters the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which publishes SOFR , probably nowadays the most important interest rate benchmarks and one mentioned multiple times in the book. The picture also represents figuratively multiple curves, more or less related, with a spread between them. Related post: Multi-curve framework book: new edition in progress

New edition with the editor

It took me a little bit longer than expected, but the new edition of “ The multi-curve framework ” book is now with the editor. I will provide more details on the advancement of the book's physical production when I receive them.

Thought police

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To enter the UK, Belgian citizens have to apply for an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA). Beyond the administrative burden, beyond the fact that the website for the authorisation did not work at the start, beyond the fact that you can not pay it in GBP — yes, you read correctly, you cannot pay a UK official document with the official currency of the country and have to face “ currency conversion fees ”—, then you have to pass under the “Thought Police” yoke. This includes mandatory questions about your opinions and what others may “suspect” your opinions are. I thought that the base of law was that we are presumed innocent until proven guilty and have the right of a fair trial. Now we can be guilty without being actually accused of anything, simply “suspected”, without even being aware that someone has that suspicion and what the actual crime would be. I thought that there was general freedom of opinion and speech. Now it seems we can be guilty of “expressing views”. I...

Pertes BNB: ça continue!

" La Banque nationale de Belgique s'attend à une perte de 3,7 milliards en 2024 " S'attend? Nous sommes le 17 janvier 2025, l'année 2024 est finie depuis longtemps, d'où vient l'incertitude? Je sais que les prévisions sont difficiles, surtout quand elles concernent le futur. Mais ici on parle du passé. Quand j’étais trader sur un desk de taux, il y a plus de 15 ans, les profits (P/L) on les calculait chaque soir avant de quitter le desk et on vérifiait avec le rapport de middle-office le matin. La puissance de calcul a-t-elle tellement diminué depuis? Il faut plus de temps pour faire les multiplications et additions? Exactement le même titre et le même texte dans les 2 journaux belges francophone principaux – “par Belga”. Pas une analyse, pas un journaliste qui fait une remarque, pas de quatrième pouvoir! Si ce n’est ce blog insignifiant que vous êtes en train de lire? Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed; everything else is pu...

La saga des élections communale à Saint-Josse continue

Un conseiller communal sortant a signé pour deux listes différentes, ce qui est interdit par le code électoral. Ces listes sont “Liste du Bourgmestre” et “Team Fouad Ahidar”. Il est passible d’une peine d’emprisonnement et d’une amende.  Mais la vraie question est de savoir si les deux listes en question sont valablement déposées et peuvent être prises en compte pour les élections. Je ne connais pas la réponse. En tant que président pressenti, je relis le “ code électoral communal bruxellois ”. Comme mentionné précédemment, les présidents de bureau non pas été désignés en accord avec le code électoral lors des dernières élections; le caractère aléatoire de la désignation n’a pas été garanti et il n’y a pas eu de motivation de ce fait.  Je me renseigne maintenant sur les “ secrétaires ”. L’article 25 indique que “ Le président du bureau de vote désigne le secrétaire [...] parmi les électeurs [...] ”. Mais il n’y a aucune indication de comment cette désignation est faite. De plus l’ar...